Presidential Election: NDA ahead of Opposition in race to Raisina Hill

NEW DELHI: Existing political fault lines suggest that the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance has a 13 percentage point lead over the Congress-spearheaded opposition group in the upcoming presidential election. However, that advantage could be enhanced or erased by six other parties, which together command a 13% vote share.
The NDA, comprising 23 political parties, has a combined vote value of 48.64% in the Electoral College for the presidential election, according to rough calculations by ET.In contrast, the rival group of 23 political parties that appear most likely to close ranks as the Congressled opposition musters a 35.47% vote share — even less than the 40% that the Bharatiya Janata Party has on its own.
The BJP’s superior voting strength emerged after its success in the recent assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
Although the BJP witnessed a decline in its MLAs in Punjab and Goa, the massive surge for the party in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur resulted in a net gain of 5.2% in terms of voting strength in the presidential Electoral College. The improved performance of the Congress in Punjab and Goa hasn’t been able to help the opposition, given the massive dip in the fortunes of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in UP. The two parties are likely to align against the BJP in the presidential election.
Pranab Mukherjee was swornin as the President of India on July 25, 2012, for a five-year term.